Our seasonal climate outlooks provide air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.
Watch Chris Brandolino, NIWA Principal Scientist - Forecasting, explain how our seasonal climate outlooks can help your business succeed and how our seasonal climate outlooks can be interpreted.
Related information:
- Sea Surface Temperature Update
- Forecasting climate (PDF 78 KB)
- More on probabilities (PDF 12 KB)
- Southern Annular Mode
- El Niño Southern Oscillation
- What's average in my region?
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Issues
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Seasonal climate outlook January 2022 - March 2022
La Niña conditions strengthened in the equatorial Pacific during December. It is expected to continue to be a key climate driver for Aotearoa New Zealand over the next three months, with an 80% chance for its continuation. -
Seasonal climate outlook December 2021 - February 2022
Summer temperatures are very likely to be above average across the country. Warm overnight temperatures and extended periods of high humidity are likely. -
Seasonal climate outlook November 2021 - January 2022
Temperatures are very likely to be above average across Aotearoa New Zealand with a period of particularly warm conditions from around the second week of November. -
Seasonal climate outlook October - December 2021
Temperatures are very likely to be above average across New Zealand. More northeasterly winds are expected to cause periods of warmth and humidity, such as in early October. -
Seasonal climate outlook September - November 2021
Spring rainfall is most likely to be below normal in the east of the North Island, near normal in the west of the South Island, and about equally likely to be near normal or below normal in all remaining regions across Aotearoa New Zealand. -
Seasonal climate outlook August - October 2021
Temperatures are most likely to be above average in all regions of the country. More northwesterly air flows will likely cause spells of unseasonably warm temperatures in the north and east of both islands in particular. -
Seasonal climate outlook July - September 2021
NZ’s weather patterns are expected to feature substantial week-to-week variability over the coming months, owing to an ENSO neutral state in the tropical Pacific Ocean. -
Seasonal climate outlook June - August 2021
Temperatures are most likely to be above average in the west and east of the South Island and about equally likely to be above average or near average in all other regions. While cold spells and frosts will occur, as is typical during winter, they may be infrequent. -
Seasonal climate outlook May - July 2021
Temperatures are very unlikely to be colder than average for the three months as a whole. Above average or near average temperatures are favoured for all regions except the east of the South Island, where above average temperatures are most likely. -
Seasonal climate outlook April - June 2021
For April-June, air pressure is expected to be lower than normal to the northwest and higher than normal to the east of the country. Although air flows will be mixed, slightly more easterly quarter winds are favoured for the three month period as a whole. -
Seasonal climate outlook March - May 2021
During autumn, New Zealand’s climate patterns are expected to become more variable as the impact from a non-traditional central Pacific La Niña starts to ease. -
Seasonal climate outlook February - April 2021
Temperatures are most likely to be above average in the north of the North Island and about equally likely to be near average or above average in all other regions. -
Seasonal climate outlook January – March 2021
Sub-tropical air flows may fuel areas of localised, heavy rainfall that can cause flooding, similar to what was in experienced in parts of the country during late December and early January. -
Seasonal climate outlook December 2020 - February 2021
Consistent with moderate La Niña conditions, December 2020 – February 2021 air pressure is forecast to be higher than normal over and to the southeast of the South Island and lower than normal to the northwest of New Zealand. This is expected to be associated with northeasterly air flow anomalies. -
Seasonal climate outlook November - January 2021
November 2020 – January 2021 air pressure is forecast to be higher than normal over and to the southeast and lower than normal to the northwest of New Zealand. This is expected to be associated with northeasterly air flow anomalies, a signature of La Niña. -
Seasonal climate outlook October - December 2020
Air pressure is forecast to be higher than normal to the southeast and lower than normal to the north of New Zealand. This is expected to be associated with developing La Niña-like northeasterly air flow anomalies, although a westerly flow anomaly, which may be strong at times, is favoured to continue for much of October. -
Seasonal climate outlook September - November 2020
September – November 2020 air pressure is forecast to be higher than normal to the east and lower than normal to the northwest of New Zealand. This is expected to be associated with La Niña-like northeasterly air flow anomalies. -
Seasonal climate outlook August - October 2020
During periods of northeasterly winds, the threat for sub-tropical low pressure systems capable of producing heavy rainfall, similar to those experienced in late June and mid-July, is elevated, particularly in the north and east of the North Island. -
Seasonal climate outlook July - September 2020
Rainfall is about equally likely to be near normal or below normal in the west of the South Island, about equally likely to be near normal or above normal in the east of the North Island, and most likely to be near normal in all other regions. -
Seasonal climate outlook June - August 2020
Oceanic ENSO-neutral conditions will very likely persist over the next three months. The long-standing climate drivers that have contributed to dryness over much of NZ are expected to influence our weather for at least the first half of the winter season. -
Seasonal climate outlook May - July 2020
Sharp cold snaps are possible during the month of May as fronts move onto the country from the Tasman Sea and Southern Ocean. -
Seasonal climate outlook April - June 2020
Warmer than average ocean waters in the Coral Sea and west-central Pacific Ocean are expected to have some influence on New Zealand’s climate in the first half of the three month period. -
Seasonal climate outlook March - May 2020
Temperatures are mostly likely to be above average in the North Island and about equally likely to be above average or near average in the South Island. -
Seasonal climate outlook February 2020 - April 2020
Temperatures are expected to be near or above average for all regions of New Zealand except the north of the North Island where above average temperatures are most likely.