Island Climate Update 182 - November 2015

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

09 November 2015

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Download ICU 182 (PDF 1.4 MB)

Download ICU Water Watch (PDF 345 KB)

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introduction

    Strong El Niño conditions persisted in October 2015.

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    Strong El Niño conditions continued in October 2015. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific have increased since September and are close to or exceed +2.5°C in places.

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast November 2015 to January 2016

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: November 2015 to January 2016

    The dynamical models are all in agreement to forecast continuing strong El Niño conditions for the November 2015 – January 2016 period.

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    ICU Water Watch

    Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.

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    Data Sources

    Sources of South Pacific rainfall data.