Island Climate Update 194 - November 2016

Download the PDF: Island Climate Update 194

The tropical Pacific exhibits mixed ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) signals, with some indicating La Niña status and others indicating neutral conditions. International guidance still slightly favours La Niña conditions (53% chance versus 46% for neutral) over the next three month period (November 2016 - January 2017). However, neutral conditions are now much more likely than La Niña by February – April 2017: 74% chance for neutral, and only 22% for La Niña. In summary, La Niña conditions are only slightly more likely than not over the next 3-month period, and become less likely as we progress into 2017.

November to January 2017 rainfall forecast

Regional drought potential advisory

Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months

Kiribati, Gilbert and Line Islands: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 5 of the past 6 months in the Gilbert Islands and 4 of the past 6 months in the Line Island. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.

New Caledonia, Northern and Southern Vanuatu: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 5 of the past 6 months. Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.