Island Climate Update 143 - August 2012

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region. 

Download ICU 143 as a PDF (317 kB)

Introduction

El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • Conditions in the Tropical Pacific Ocean are currently on the brink of El Niño, however the atmosphere has not caught up yet with the ocean, and circulation patterns are atypical of El Niño.
  • A large majority of the models indicate that El Niño thresholds in both the atmosphere and the ocean will be exceeded over the forecast period.