23 June 2016
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño has ended. All the El Niño – Southern Oscillation indices have now returned to near neutral levels.
Neutral conditions are favored (54% chance) over the coming three months (June – August 2016).
A transition to La Niña conditions later this year is likely.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- The SPCZ is expected to be positioned close to its climatological position.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
Below normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Niue, Tonga, eastern Kiribati, western Kiribati, northern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.
Above normal rainfall is forecast for the northern Cook Islands, Tokelau, Tuvalu and the Tuamotu archipelago.
Normal or above normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for the Federated States of Micronesia, the northern Cook Islands, the Tuamotu archipelago and New Caledonia.