Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • El Niño has ended. All the El Niño – Southern Oscillation indices have now returned to near neutral levels.
  • Neutral conditions are favored (54% chance) over the coming three months (June – August 2016).
  • A transition to La Niña conditions later this year is likely.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

  • The SPCZ is expected to be positioned close to its climatological position.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  • Below normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Niue, Tonga, eastern Kiribati, western Kiribati, northern Vanuatu and the Federated States of Micronesia.
  • Above normal rainfall is forecast for the northern Cook Islands, Tokelau, Tuvalu and the Tuamotu archipelago.
  • Normal or above normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for the Federated States of Micronesia, the northern Cook Islands, the Tuamotu archipelago and New Caledonia.
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