Seasonal Climate Outlook

Air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.

For background information on climate outlooks and their interpretation, see the documents below.

Forecasting climate (PDF 78 KB)

More on probabilities (PDF 12 KB)

For historical rainfall and temperature data ranges for several locations within each climate outlook region, see our baseline tables.

Baseline tables

Issues

ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific Ocean as a whole, although some indicators are currently in the weak La Niña category.
ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions continued in the tropical Pacific Ocean during August: sea surface temperatures along the eastern equatorial Pacific are near or slightly below normal, and the atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific are generally consistent with an ENSO-neutral state.
ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific.
The latest remnants of the strong El Niño which peaked late in 2015 have now vanished in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the Pacific is ENSO-neutral.
Ocean-atmosphere conditions in the tropical Pacific have now returned to near normal after a rapid demise of the El Niño event that peaked late 2015.
El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific weakened further during April 2016, with sea surface temperatures now typically only about +1oC warmer than normal.
Strong El Niño conditions continued to dominate the tropical Pacific during December 2015.
Strong El Niño conditions continue in the Tropical Pacific.
Atmospheric and oceanic anomalies in the equatorial Pacific reflect strong El Niño conditions.
Strong El Niño conditions were established across the Equatorial Pacific during September 2015.
Strong El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific ocean.
El Niño conditions continued to strengthen during July 2015.
An El Niño event is under way in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures have continued to warm across many areas of the eastern and central Tropical Pacific.
An El Niño event is now under way in the tropical Pacific.
Warming of the sea surface across the equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in April 2015, building upon the warmer than normal waters observed in previous months.
Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific intensified significantly around the international Dateline during March 2015 and are currently showing a pattern consistent with weak El Niño conditions.
Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to reflect conditions between neutral and weak El Niño states during February 2015. Atmospheric patterns were mostly indicative of weak El Niño-like conditions.
Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean are borderline between neutral and weak El Niño conditions.
Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean remained steady during December 2014 at above conventional El Niño thresholds.
In November 2014, the equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed significantly, reaching El Niño levels towards the end of the month.
At the end of October 2014, atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean were at borderline El Niño thresholds.

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