Island Climate Update 59 - August 2005

Aftermath and lessons learned from the 2004/05 tropical cyclone season in the Cook Islands
Imogen Ingram, Te Pa Mataiapo, Rarotonga, Cook Islands
This article covers the aftermath of the five tropical cyclone season which affected the Cook Islands in February and discusses the relief, recovery and reconstruction. Last month’s Island Climate Update summarised the adaptation of the communities leading up to and during the cyclone season.
Relief and Recovery
One of the main impacts was the closure of the airports and roads due to debris and damages from the cyclones.

Forecast validation
Forecast validation: May to July 2005
Enhanced convection and average or above average rainfall was expected over the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, as well as the Southern Cook Islands. Suppressed convection with below average rainfall was expected in the Marquesas Islands, with near or below average rainfall in the Tuamotu Islands, as well as Tuvalu and Tokelau.

ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures
The tropical Pacific Ocean is in a neutral state (no El Niño or La Niña), but equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies remain positive. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been near zero during June and July, with the 3- month May – July mean at –0.4. The NINO3, NINO4, and NINO3.4 SST anomalies were all between +0.6 and +0.7°C in July, and have been near those levels for most of 2005. Equatorial SST anomalies have risen recently west of the Date Line.

Climate developments in July 2005
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended from Papua New-Guinea to Tuvalu (associated with areas of enhanced convection, especially near Papua New Guinea). North of the Equator, the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) extended eastward from the region south of the Marshall Islands.

Tropical rainfall outlook: August to October 2005
Enhanced convection is expected from Papua New Guinea extending east to the Marquesas Islands, including the Solomon Islands, Wallis and Futuna and the Northern Cook Islands, where rainfall is expected to be near or above average.
Near or below average rainfall is forecast for Western and Eastern Kiribati, Fiji, the Southern Cook Islands and the Pitcairn Island.
Rainfall is expected to be near average elsewhere in the region.
The skill of the global rainfall forecast models remain in low to moderate range.
Rainfall outlook map for August to

Tropical pacific rainfall - July 2005
Territory and station name
July 2005 rainfall total (mm)
Long-term average (mm)
July 2005 percent of average
Lowest on record (mm)
Highest on record (mm)
Records began
American Samoa
Pago Pago Airport
121.9
160
76
1966
Australia
Cairns Airport
64.6
29
223
0
145
1941
Townsville Airport
25.0
14
179
0
174
1940
Brisbane Airport
16.6
63
26
1
399
1929
Sydney Airport
75.4
126
60
1929
Cook Islands
Penryhn
121.8
139
88
11
659
1937
Rarotonga Airport
258.1
104
248
13
298
1929
Rarotonga EWS
255.4
1

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Island
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned.
Acknowledgements
This bulletin is made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), Wellington, New Zealand, wi