Island Climate Update 188 - May 2016
9 May 2016
El Niño conditions eased in the tropical Pacific during April 2016, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) now typically only about +1°C warmer than normal.
The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.
The dynamical models are in agreement to forecast rapidly weakening El Niño conditions for the May – July 2016 period, with a return to neutral conditions over the season as a whole the most likely outcome (76% chance).
Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.