Island Climate Update 186 - March 2016
8 March 2016
Strong El Niño conditions continued in February 2015.
Strong El Niño conditions continued during February 2016, but the event is clearly in its decay phase, having reached a peak at the end of 2015.
The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.
The dynamical models are in agreement to forecast continuing El Niño conditions for the March – May 2016 period (99% chance).
Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data