Island Climate Update 181 - October 2015
5 October 2015
Strong El Niño conditions were established during September 2015. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the NINO3.4 region are close to +2°C (+1.96°C), while they exceed this threshold in the NINO3 region (eastern Pacific: 90oW – 150oW), with the latest monthly value reaching +2.12°C.
The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.
The dynamical models are all in agreement to forecast continuing El Niño conditions for the October – December 2015 period.
Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.