Island Climate Update 177 - June 2015

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

03 July 2015

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Download ICU 177 (PDF 1.49 MB)

Download ICU Water Watch (PDF 413 KB)

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introduction

    El Niño is now underway in the Tropical Pacific.

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have increased considerably in the eastern Pacific and are showing a pattern typical of El Niño. The SOI has dropped further in the negative and is at -1.2 for May 2015.

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast June to August 2015

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: June to August 2015

    The dynamical model forecasts indicate that the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is likely to experience above normal rainfall in June – August 2015. In contrast, large regions of the southwest and southeast Pacific are expected to experience reduced rainfall, due to El Niño conditions continuing over the forecast period.

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    ICU Water Watch

    Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.

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    Data sources

    Sources of South Pacific rainfall data