Island Climate Update 176 - May 2015

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

07 May 2015

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Download ICU 176 (PDF 314 KB)

Download ICU Water Watch (PDF 344 KB)

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Island Climate Update

In this issue

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    Introduction

    Warming of the sea surface across the equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in April 2015 and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies currently reflect weak El Niño conditions.

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    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific continued to increase and expand eastward along the Equator during May 2015 and are currently showing a pattern consistent with weak El Niño conditions.

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    South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast May to July 2015

    The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

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    Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: May to July 2015

    The dynamical model forecasts indicate that the central equatorial Pacific is likely to experience above normal rainfall in May – July 2015.

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    ICU Water Watch

    Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.

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    Data sources

    Sources of South Pacific rainfall data