09 February 2015
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific were close to El Niño thresholds in January 2015.
- Regional atmospheric patterns are inconsistent with El Niño.
- Probability for El Niño during February – April 2015 is about 60 %.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north of normal for the coming three months.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, the Marquesas, New Caledonia and Vanuatu.
- Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for Western Kiribati, Samoa, Tokelau, Tuvalu, the Austral Islands and the Society Islands.
- Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati , eastern Kiribati, Tokelau and Tuvalu. Normal or below normal SSTs are forecast for Pitcairn Island.
