During March–May 2014, mean sea level pressures are expected to be lower than normal to the north of the country, with higher pressures than normal to the southeast of New Zealand. This circulation pattern is likely to be associated with anomalous north-easterly flows over the North Island and anomalous weak easterly flows over the South Island.
Sea surface temperatures are expected to be near average around New Zealand, for the coming three months as a whole.
The equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in a neutral ENSO-state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in February 2014. International guidance indicates that ENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely outcome for autumn, but in the following winter season about half the international models develop El Niño or borderline El Niño conditions.
News: 'El Nino Watch' called by U.S. climate experts
U.S. climate experts have raised their El Nino alert system from 'Not Active' to 'El Nino Watch'. There is no change to NIWA's March-May climate outlook, and the probability of an El Nino later this year (winter) currently remains at about 50%. However, this situation could change quickly, so NIWA is keeping a close watch on the state of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific.