What happened in April, how our climate outlook for the previous three months turned out, global and local sea temperatures, and our outlook for May to July.
In April 2011, New Zealand was affected by more southeast winds than usual. These produced extremely high rainfalls in the east of the North Island, as well as on the Kaikoura coast. The southeast winds also resulted in below average April temperatures in most eastern areas, but gave a very sunny month for the West Coast of the South Island.
The La Niña event in the tropical Pacific continues to ease (especially in the ocean), and conditions are expected to return to neutral by the middle of the May to July forecast period. Mean sea level pressures are likely to be below normal north of New Zealand and above normal to the east and south of the country, with more frequent than normal northerly or northeasterly flow over New Zealand.
During May-July, mean sea level pressures are likely to be below normal north of New Zealand and above normal to the east and south of the country, with more frequent than normal northerly or northeasterly flow over New Zealand. Temperatures are likely to be above average in the North Island and northern South Island, and average or above average in the rest of the South Island. Seasonal rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, near normal in the southwest of the North Island and the north of the South Island, and normal or below normal over the rest of the South Island.
The climate we predicted and what actually happened.
