Tropical Cyclone Winston may be heading for New Zealand

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The remains of Tropical Cyclone Winston, which devastated Fiji over the weekend, may hit New Zealand at the end of the week, according to NIWA meteorologists.

Winston, a category 5 storm, was the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall on Fiji’s main island of Viti Levu. Winds reached up to 296km/h at its most intense. The previous record holder was Tropical Cyclone Nigel in 1985 which produced 194 km/h winds.

As of this morning, Winston was producing wind of 176km/h with gusts of 213km/h, dropping it to a low-end category 4 storm. It is forecast to pass 300 to 500km east of Vanuatu’s southernmost islands tomorrow, while strengthening slightly, nearly doubling back on the path it took last week.

The storm’s longevity has been helped by abnormally warm sea-surface temperatures in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. Ocean surface temperatures near or above 30°C have enabled Winston to achieve the maximum intensity possible over its life cycle.

Winston is forecast to make a turn to the southwest from Wednesday into Thursday, continuing on a path into the open waters of the South Pacific. A general weakening trend is also expected as the storm heads south.

The late-week track of Winston remains rather uncertain. One option takes Winston southwest through Friday, then adjusts southeastward, heading for New Zealand over the weekend.

The second possibility is that the storm takes a southwesterly to westerly track in the general direction of coastal Queensland, Australia. At this time, NIWA meteorologists favour the former, which may result in a round of heavy rain, along with strong, gusty wind this weekend over New Zealand. Rough surf could develop well ahead of any ex-tropical impact, perhaps as early as Thursday for the North Island.

NIWA meteorologists consider this a rapidly evolving weather situation with forecast confidence rated low to medium. The next update should be available by midday tomorrow.

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One Potential Winston Position, 7 am Saturday NZDT. [NIWA]
Winston’s Historical Track (black) and Forecast (pink), Joint Typhoon Warning Centre. [Image credit: Joint Typhoon Warning Centre]
Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston prior to Fijian landfall Saturday evening. [NOAA and Japanese Meteorological Agency]

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