NIWA unveils hazard prediction initiative

Plans to develop a hazard prediction service were announced today by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), following the commissioning of their new supercomputer.

NIWA Research Director Dr Rick Pridmore said that their new Cray T3E Massively Parallel  supercomputer would play an important part in ensuring that NIWA remains in the forefront of international climate, atmospheric, marine, fisheries and coastal science.

“The Cray computer will allow NIWA scientists to develop new high resolution forecasting systems that will predict the occurrence of heavy rainfall and strong winds, together with their impacts on river and sea levels. It will also be used to predict the vulnerability of the coast to ‘unpredictable’ events such as tsunami.”

“Improved hazard predictions will result from our ability to continuously monitor the environment, correctly simulate environmental responses, and to use this information in coupled computer models. Without direct access to a supercomputer, it will be impossible to improve the quality of New Zealand’s environmental hazard predictions. The Cray T3E will give NIWA this capability.”

“For example, high resolution weather predictions coupled to river catchment run-off models will lead to improved forecasts of floods, both in terms of the size of the flood-peaks, and when they will occur. By further coupling the atmospheric predictions to tidal and storm-surge models it will be possible to predict the full affects of weather related hazards around the coasts.”

“The key aim here is to develop a capability to provide accurate hazard warnings that give planners the longest possible lead time. This information is expected to be of particular significance to the public, central and local government, civil defence authorities, transport, energy companies, maritime authorities and farmers.”

“As New Zealand continues to develop into a knowledge based society, it will become increasingly important to forecast events which we cannot control but have a significant impact on how we plan our activities. To this end NIWA has steadily invested in a range of high quality scientific equipment to provide our scientists with the data and tools they need to achieve this outcome.”

“Over the last few years we have installed:-

• A satellite reception facility to receive and process data from weather and oceanographic satellites,
• A national sea-level monitoring network,
• An atmospheric (balloon) sounding system,
• Automatic climate and river flow monitoring stations, and
• A meteorological-ocean buoy observing platform.”

“With this new computer facility in place as the centrepiece of our technical resources, we can now take the next step toward developing these advanced hazard prediction services.”

“NIWA is fortunate in having scientists and researchers whose capability stands comparison with those in the best international institutions. It is a tribute to them, and to the equipment we have in place, that we are attracting top scientists from overseas to participate on our research programmes.”

Dr Pridmore also said that while one of the main uses of the supercomputer will be in the area of hazard prediction research, it will underpin many other research initiatives. These include:-

• Modelling climate variability and the impact of El Niño and La Niña on New Zealand’s weather,
• Modelling the transport of Greenhouse Gases and their interactions with New Zealand’s environment,
• Modelling global tides,
• Modelling and forecasting ocean currents in the New Zealand region,
• Estimating fisheries resources,
• Modelling the marine environment including physical, biological and fisheries components, and
• Determining whether water was ever present on Mars by analysing data sent back from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter.

“This computer facility will be available for use by other New Zealand organisations, and is expected to spur co-operative research with Universities. Also, being a massively parallel supercomputer, it will provide University mathematicians and computer scientists with opportunities to conduct research on one of the most advanced computing platforms in the world.”

Dr Pridmore said he was particularly appreciative of the assistance given to NIWA by the supplier of the supercomputer, SGI.

“This computer is ranked number 60 on the list of most powerful computers in the world and the first supercomputer to be delivered in New Zealand. SGI’s installation and support of this facility at NIWA’s Greta Point research centre has been first class.”