La Niña continues – winter drier in Central Otago, above normal rain in east of North Island and Canterbury

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Climate observations and predictions point to La Niña weather conditions continuing over New Zealand during winter according to NIWA senior climate scientist Dr Jim Salinger.

"During late autumn (April-May) these conditions tend to bring above-average temperatures everywhere," said Dr Salinger. "Above-average rainfall is expected in the north and east of the North Island, and below-average rainfall is expected to continue in the south of the South Island."

For winter (June, July and August) La Niña typically brings more winds from the north and north-east over New Zealand. In the North Island, especially in the east from Bay of Plenty south, above-average temperatures can be expected. Below-average temperatures usually occur in inland and southern South Island areas. Above-normal rainfall is expected in the Bay of Plenty, eastern areas of the North Island, and in Canterbury. But for the drought-affected areas of Central Otago drier than normal conditions are more likely.

"The scientific evidence now coming in shows that a large area in the equatorial central Pacific Ocean remains cooler than average. Seasonal climate models are now in agreement that La Niña conditions are likely to strengthen again in winter. If so, eastern areas of the South Island are expected to receive lower-than-average spring rainfalls."

"Further ahead most climate models suggest that La Niña or neutral conditions will occur later in the year. This variation suggests uncertainty in the forecast conditions for the latter part of 1999, but it must be noted that the chances of an El Niño developing are very low," said Dr Salinger. "The regions most at risk of dry conditions over summer are thus Otago and South Canterbury."

"NIWA will continue to closely monitor how La Niña continues to evolve in the coming months."

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