Outlook: June-August 2019

June –August 2019 temperatures are forecast to be above average in the east of the South Island (50% chance) and about equally likely to be above average (45% chance) or near average (40% chance) in all remaining regions of New Zealand. Despite a low chance for a winter season with below average temperatures, cold snaps and frosts remain likely to occur.

June –August 2019 rainfall is about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or above normal (35% chance) in the west of the South Island, most likely to be near normal (45% chance) in the east of the South Island and west of the North Island, and about equally likely to be below normal (35-40% chance) or near normal (35-40% chance) for all remaining regions of New Zealand.

June –August 2019 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be below normal (55% chance) in the north of the North Island and east of the South Island. For the east of the North Island and north of the South Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance)or below normal (35-40%chance),with near normal soil moisture levels and river flows likely (40-45% chance) for the west of the North Island. For the west of the South Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (35-40% chance) or above normal (35-40% chance).

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, June-August 2019.