Outlook: August-October 2016

August – October 2016 temperatures are very likely to be above average in all regions of the country. Nevertheless, frosts and cold snaps will occur from time to time in cooler locations. Sea surface temperatures are forecast to remain above normal over the next three months, especially to the west of New Zealand.

August – October 2016 rainfall totals are about equally likely to be in the near normal or above normal range in the north and west of the North Island and the west of the South Island. Seasonal rainfall is most likely to be in the near normal range in the east of the North Island and the north of the South Island. In the east of the South Island, rainfall for the August – October 2016 period is about equally likely to be near normal or below normal

August - October 2016 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be below normal in the east of the South Island. In the north of the North Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be in the near normal range or above normal range. In the west of the North Island, soil moisture levels are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal, and river flows are most likely to be in the near normal range. Seasonal soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal or below normal in the east of the North Island and the north of the South Island. In the west of the South Island, soil moisture levels are most likely to be near normal while river flows are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal.