Island Climate Update 196 - January 2017

Download the PDF: Island Climate Update 196

The tropical Pacific continues to exhibit mainly ENSO-neutral conditions. International guidance now strongly favours ENSO-neutral conditions (77% chance) over the next three month period (January – March 2017). Thus, any La Niña-like conditions observed in the ocean or atmosphere during recent months are likely to have peaked and will subside toward a neutral state during the next 3 months. ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely to continue (78% chance) during April – June 2017.


January to March 2017 rainfall forecast

January to March 2017 rainfall forecast

Regional drought potential advisory

Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months

Regional drought potential advisory

Nauru, Kiribati Gilbert and Line Islands: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over the past 6 months in the Gilbert Islands and Nauru and 5 of the past 6 months in the Line Islands. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.
Tokelau: Below normal rainfall experienced over 3 of the past 6 months. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.
New Caledonia: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 5 of the past 6 months. Near normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.