Island Climate Update 189 - June 2016
23 June 2016
El Niño has ended. All the El Niño – Southern Oscillation indices have now returned to near neutral levels.
Ocean-Atmosphere conditions in the Tropical Pacific have now returned to a near normal state after a rapid demise of the El Niño event, which peaked in late 2015.
The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.
El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are most likely (54% chance) over the next three months period (June – August 2016) but a transition to La Niña is possible (43% chance).
Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months.