Outlook: October-December 2019

October – December 2019 temperatures have about equal chances of being near average (45% chance) or below average (40% chance) for the west and north of the South Island. All other regions of New Zealand will most likely experience near average temperatures (50% chance).

October – December 2019 rainfall is about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (35% chance) for the north of the North and South Island and about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or above normal (35% chance) in the east of the South Island. Near normal rainfall is most likely for all other regions of New Zealand (45% chance).

October – December 2019 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be near normal (35-40%) or below normal (35-40% chance) for all regions of New Zealand except for the east of the North Island where near normal soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely.

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, October-December 2019.