Outlook: September-November 2019

September – November 2019 temperatures have about equal chances of being near average (45% chance) or below average (40% chance) for the north and west of the South Island. All other regions of New Zealand will most likely experience near average temperatures (50% chance). There is an elevated risk for sharp cold snaps, especially for the South Island, during the first half of the season.

September – November 2019 rainfall is about equally likely to be near normal (40-45% chance) or above normal (35-40% chance) for much of New Zealand except for the west of the South Island where near normal rainfall (45% chance) is most likely.

September – November 2019 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be near normal (40-45% chance) for all regions of New Zealand.

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, September-November 2019.