Retrospective: May-July 2019 Outlook

Air pressure was expected to be higher than normal to the west and north of New Zealand and below normal to the south of the country, resulting in more westerly quarter winds than normal. Actual pressures were higher than normal over and to the east of the country and lower than normal south of NZ. This pressure set up resulted in a weak westerly flow anomaly.

Predicted air temperature: May – July 2019 temperatures were forecast to be above average in the north and east of the North Island and east of the South Island and about equally likely to be above average or near average in all remaining regions.

Outcome: Actual temperatures were above average for most of the country. Small pockets of near average temperatures were observed about Auckland, Nelson, Tasman, Marlborough and Kaikoura.

Predicted rainfall: May-July 2019 rainfall was about equally likely to be below normal or near normal in the North Island and in the east of the South Island, most likely to be near normal in the north of the South Island, and about equally likely to be above normal or near normal in the west of the South Island.

Outcome: Actual rainfall was below normal in the north and east if the North Island and near normal in the west of the North Island. In the South Island, rainfall was largely near normal. Pockets of above normal rainfall occurred in Nelson and parts of the West Coast.