Outlook: August-October 2019

August – October 2019 temperatures have about equal chances of being near average (35-40% chance) or above average (40% chance) for all regions of New Zealand. Despite a low chance for below average seasonal temperatures, an abnormally cold period is expected in early August.

August – October 2019 rainfall is about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or above normal (35% chance) for the west of the North Island and north of the South Island. Near normal rainfall (45% chance) is forecast for all remaining regions of New Zealand.

August – October 2019 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be below normal (40-45% chance) in the north of the North Island. For the west of the North Island, soil moisture levels are most likely to be in the above normal range (45% chance) and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (35% chance) or above normal (40% chance). For the east of the North Island, soil moisture levels are most likely to be in the near normal range (40% chance). River flows in the east of the North Island and river flows and soil moisture levels in the east of the South Island are about equally likely to be normal (35-40% chance) or below normal (35-40% chance). For the north and west of the South Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (35-40% chance) or above normal (40% chance).

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, August-October 2019.