Retrospective: April-June 2019 Outlook

New Zealand’s regional climate over April – June 2018 was expected to be driven by persistence of more northeasterly airflow than normal. The northern Tasman Sea was expected to remain unsettled, with lower pressures than normal, bringing the likelihood of significant rainfall events to the North Island and the upper South Island. Actual pressures were much lower than normal across the country with more westerlies than usual for the North Island and more South westerlies for the South Island.

Predicted air temperature: April – June 2018 temperatures were forecast to be above average for all regions of New Zealand with high confidence.

Outcome: Actual temperatures were near average for most of the North Island and parts of Nelson, Marlborough and Canterbury. The remainder of the country saw above average temperatures.

Predicted rainfall: April – June 2018, rainfall totals were forecast to be above normal in the north and east of the North Island, near normal in the west of the South Island, and near normal or above normal in all other regions. 

Outcome: Actual rainfall was below normal for the north and east of the North Island as well as Nelson, Tasman and southern Canterbury. Rainfall was near normal for the remainder of the country.