Outlook: July-September 2019

July – September 2019 temperatures are about equally likely to be near average (40-45% chance) or above average (40-45% chance) for all regions of New Zealand. Despite a low chance for a season with below average temperatures, cold snaps and frosts remain likely to occur.

July – September 2019 rainfall is about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (35% chance) in the north of the North Island and north and east of the South Island. Rainfall is forecast to be near normal (45% chance) in all remaining regions of New Zealand.

July – September 2019 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be below normal (40% chance) in the north of the North Island. For the north of the South Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (35-40% chance) or below normal (35-40% chance). Near normal soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast for the remaining regions of New Zealand (40-45% chance).

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, July-September 2019.