Outlook: May-July 2019

May –July 2019 temperatures are forecast to be above average in the north and east of the North Island and east of the South Island (50-55% chance) and about equally likely to be above average (45% chance) or near average (40% chance) in all remaining regions of New Zealand. However, cold snaps and frosts are likely to occur, particularly in colder locations, as the season progresses.

May–July2019 rainfall is about equally likely to be above normal (40% chance) or near normal (35% chance) in the west of the South Island, most likely to be near normal (45% chance) in the north of the South Island, and about equally likely to be below normal (35-40% chance) or near normal (35-40% chance) for all remaining regions of New Zealand.

May –July 2019 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be below normal (50% chance)in the north of the North Island. For the west of the South Island, soil moisture levels are about equally likely to be above normal or near normal (35-40% chance) while river flows are most likely to be above normal (45% chance). For all other regions of New Zealand, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be normal or below normal (40-45% chance).

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, May-July 2019.