Outlook: April-June 2019

April–June2019 temperatures are forecast to be above average in the north and east of the North Island and east of the South Island (50% chance) and about equally likely to be above average (45% chance) or near average (40% chance) in all remaining regions of New Zealand. However, cold snaps and frosts are likely to occur, particularly in colder locations, as the season progresses.

April –June2019 rainfall is about equally likely to be above normal (35-40% chance) or near normal (35-40% chance) in the west and north of the South Island and about equally likely to be below normal (35-40% chance) or near normal (35-40% chance) for all remaining regions of New Zealand.

April –June 2019 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be below normal (50-55% chance) in the north of the North Island and east of the South Island. For the west of the South Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be above normal (50% chance). In the north of the South Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be in the near normal range (40% chance). For the west and east of the North Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be below normal (40% chance) or near normal (35% chance).

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, April-June 2019.