Outlook: March-May 2019

March – May 2019 temperatures are forecast to be above average (50-60% chance) for all regions of New Zealand.  A particularly warm start is expected for the autumn season, but cold snaps and frosts are likely to occur in colder locations as the season progresses.

March – May 2019 rainfall totals are forecast to be normal or below normal (35-40% chance) for all of the North Island.  Normal or above normal rainfall (35-40% chance) is expected for the west of the South Island with near normal rainfall elsewhere (45% chance).

March – May 2019 soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be below normal or near normal (35-40% chance) for all of the North Island.  For the west of South Island, soil moisture and river flows likely to be near the climatological range (i.e. near the long term normal) with near average  conditions for the north and east of the island.  

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, March-May 2019.