Outlook: January-March 2019

February – April 2019 temperatures are forecast to be above average (50-60% chance) for all regions of New Zealand.

February – April 2019 rainfall is about equally likely to be normal (40%) or above normal (35%) in the north of the North Island and west of the South Island. Near normal rainfall is most likely (45% chance) for all remaining regions of New Zealand.

February – April 2019 soil moisture levels are forecast to be below normal (45% chance) in the north and west of the North Island, about equally likely to be below normal or near normal (35-40% chance) in the east of the North Island, and north and west of the South Island, and most likely to be near normal in the east of the South Island.

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, February-April 2019.