Outlook: January-March 2019

January – March 2019 temperatures are forecast to be above average (50% chance) for the north of the North Island and above average or average (40 – 45 % chance) for all other regions of New Zealand.

January – March 2019 rainfall totals are forecast to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (35% chance) for the north of the North Island and near normal (40% chance) or above normal (35% chance) for the west of the South Island.  Near normal rainfall is most likely (45% chance) for all remaining regions of New Zealand.

January – March 2019 soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast to be in the near normal range (45 – 50% chance) in the South Island and for the west and east of the North Island. In the north of the North Island, near normal soil moisture levels are forecast (45% chance) and near normal or below normal flows are about equally likely (40 – 45% chance).

 

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, January-March