Outlook: November-January 2018

November 2018 – January 2019 temperatures are forecast to be above average (40-45% chance) or near average (40% chance) for all regions of New Zealand.

November 2018 – January 2019 rainfall totals are forecast to be below normal (35-40% chance) or near normal (35-40%) for all regions of New Zealand except for the west of the South Island where near normal rainfall is most likely (45% chance).

November 2018 – January 2019 soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast to be near normal (45% chance) or below normal (40%) for the North Island and north of the South Island. For the west of the South Island, near normal (55% chance) soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast. For the east of the South Island, below normal (50% chance) soil moisture levels are river flows are forecast.

 

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, November-January.