Outlook: April-June 2018

April – June 2018 temperatures are forecast to be above average for all regions of New Zealand with high confidence (60% chance). The warm ocean waters around the country are forecast to persist through the next three months, but by the end of winter are expected to return to near normal west of the country. Even though seasonal-average temperatures are very likely to be above normal, frosts will occur in cooler locations as late autumn progresses.

For April – June 2018, rainfall totals are forecast to be above normal in the north and east of the North Island (45% chance), near normal in the west of the South Island (45% chance), and near normal (40% chance) or above normal (35 to 40% chance) in all other regions. 

April – June 2018 soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast to be above normal in the north and east of the North Island and in the north of the South Island (45% chance), near normal (40% chance) or above normal (40% chance) in the west of the North Island, and near normal (45% chance) in the west and east of the South Island.

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, April-June.