Outlook: November-January 2018

November 2017 – January 2018 temperatures are forecast to be above average for all regions of New Zealand (60% to 70% chance for above average temperatures). Coastal water temperatures around New Zealand are forecast to remain above average over the next three-month period, especially along the east coast of the South Island.

November 2017 – January 2018 rainfall totals are about equally likely to be normal (35% chance) or above normal (40% chance) for the north and east of the North Island, and most likely to be near normal (45% chance) in the west of the North Island and the north and east of the South Island. Rainfall totals for the next three months are about equally likely to be below normal (40% chance) or near normal (35% chance) in the west of the South Island.

November 2017 – January 2018 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be below normal (45% chance) in the west and east of the South Island and most likely to be above normal (45% chance) in the east of the North Island. Soil moisture levels and river flows are equally likely to be near normal (35% chance) or above normal (35% chance) in the north of the North Island. In the west of the North Island and the north of the South Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be in the near normal range (40% chance).

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, November-January.