Retrospective: August-October 2016 Outlook

For August - October 2016, there was no clear guidance or indication on seasonal airflow anomaly.  However, weak anomalously low pressures were forecast around New Zealand and were likely to be accompanied with unsettled conditions. Actual pressures were higher than normal to the south of New Zealand and over the South Island. Slightly lower than normal pressure was observed to the northeast of the country. This pressure set up produced slightly more easterly flows over the South Island than normal. 

Predicted air temperature: August – October 2016 temperatures were very likely to be above average in all regions of the country.

Outcome: Actual seasonal temperatures were near normal for the much of the country. Slightly warmer than average temperatures were recorded in Thames-Coromandel as well as parts of the Bay of Plenty, Waikato, the West Coast and Southland.

Predicted rainfall: August – October 2016 rainfall totals were likely to be in the near normal or above normal range in the north and west of the North Island and the west of the South Island.  Seasonal rainfall was most likely to be in the near normal range in the east of the North Island and the north of the South Island. In the east of the South Island, rainfall was likely to be near normal or below normal.

Outcome: Actual rainfall was near normal for much of the North Island, with the exception of Auckland, Hawke’s Bay and parts of Gisborne, where above normal rainfall was observed. In the South Island, rainfall was largely below normal. The exceptions were Dunedin and Waitaki where above normal rainfall was observed and Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough where rainfall was near normal