Retrospective – March to May 2015 Outlook

During March – May 2015, mean sea level pressures were expected to be slightly below normal over New Zealand and below normal to the north and east of the country. This pressure pattern was expected to be associated with anomalous flow from the easterly quarter.

Actual pressures were below normal over New Zealand and the Tasman resulting in an anomalous westerly quarter flow.

Predicted rainfall: March – May 2015 rainfall totals are most likely to be in the near normal or above normal range in the east of the South Island, near normal in the north and west of the South Island, and near normal or below normal for regions of the North Island.  

Outcome: Actual rainfall was above normal for the western regions of both the North and South Island and near normal for all other regions. Small areas of below normal rainfall were found along the coasts of Gisborne, Masterton, Wairarapa, Hurunui and Waitaki.

Predicted air temperature: March-May 2015 temperatures are most likely to be in the near or above average range for all regions of New Zealand.

Outcome: Actual temperatures were in fact above average for the entire country. Isolated pockets of near average temperature were observed in Otorohanga, coastal Gisborne and coastal Clutha.