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Global setting – February 2015

Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to reflect conditions between neutral and weak El Niño states during February 2015. Atmospheric patterns were mostly indicative of weak El Niño-like conditions.

International guidance indicates that the probability of El Niño developing over the next three months (March – May 2015) is about 45%. This probability increases to ~60% in June – August 2015.

During March – May 2015, mean sea level pressures are expected to be slightly below normal over New Zealand, and below normal to the north and east of the country. This pressure pattern is expected to be associated with anomalous flow from the easterly quarter.

Sea Surface Temperatures

Coastal waters are forecast to remain in the above normal range especially along the west coast of the country for the March – May 2015 period.

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 1 to 28 February 2015. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: February SOI 0; December to February average -0.4.
Differences from normal February surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

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