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Global setting – January 2015

Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean are borderline between neutral and weak El Niño conditions.  However - as was the case over the past few months – the atmospheric patterns are still inconsistent with El Niño.

International guidance indicates that the probability of El Niño conditions developing the next three months (February – April 2015) is about 60%.

During February – April 2015, higher pressures than normal are forecast over and to the southeast of the country, and slightly lower than normal pressures are likely to the north of New Zealand. This atmospheric pressure pattern is expected to be associated with weak easterly flow anomalies.

 

Sea Surface Temperatures

Sea Surface Temperatures around New Zealand are forecast to be in the above normal range all around the country. 

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 4 January to 31 January 2015. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: January SOI -0.7; November to January average -0.8.
Differences from normal January surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

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