MenuMain navigation

Global Setting - November 2014

2 December 2014

In November 2014, the equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed significantly, reaching El Niño levels towards the end of the month. Some – but importantly not all – atmospheric indicators also show patterns consistent with the development of a weak El Niño.

International guidance indicates that the chance for El Niño developing over the December 2014 – February 2015 period is about 75%. This figure has increased compared to forecasts issued last month.

During December 2014 – February 2015, lower pressures than normal are forecast over the New-Zealand region. This pressure pattern is expected to produce a weak southwesterly flow anomaly with perturbed conditions from time to time.

Sea Surface Temperatures

Sea surface temperatures for the coming three months are expected to be near average around the coasts of New Zealand.

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 2 November 2014 to 29 November 2014. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: November SOI -1; September to November average -0.9.
Differences from normal November surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

Archived

This page has been marked as archived, and is here for historical reference only.

Information provided may be out of date, and you are advised to check for newer sources in this section.

This content may be removed at a later date.