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Global Setting - September 2014

During September 2014, borderline El Niño conditions returned in the Pacific: sea surface temperatures rose in the western-central Pacific, sub-surface heat content increased, and the Southern Oscillation Index persisted at about -0.7.

Both atmospheric and oceanic indicators are consequently close to conventional El Niño thresholds.
International guidance indicates the development of a weak El Niño over the next three months is likely (67% chance).

During October–December 2014, mean sea level pressures are expected to be lower than normal to the north as well as over most of the country. This pressure pattern is expected to be accompanied by generally perturbed conditions.

Sea Surface Temperatures

Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand for the coming three months are expected to be near average.

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 31 of August 2014 to 27th of September 2014. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: September SOI -0.8; July to September average -0.7.
Differences from normal September surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

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