Outlook – September to November 2014

September-November temperatures are likely to be average or above average in all North Island regions, and also in the north of the South Island. Seasonal temperatures are most likely to be near average for the east and the west of the South Island. Cold snaps and frosts can still be expected in some parts of the country as we advance into spring.

September-November rainfall totals are about equally likely to be in the normal or above normal range in all North Island regions, and most likely to be normal in the north of the South Island. Seasonal rainfall is about equally likely to be in the near normal or above normal range in the east of the South Island, but about equally likely to be near normal or below normal in the west of the South Island.

Soil moisture and river flows are about equally likely to be in the near normal or above normal range in all North Island regions, and most likely to be in the near normal range in the north and west of the South Island. In the east of the South Island, soil moisture levels are about equally likely to be in the near normal or below normal range and river flows most likely to be in the below normal range.p>