Global Setting - August 2014
The equatorial Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral at the end of August 2014. Despite the Southern Oscillation Index being currently negative, a fully coupled (ocean and atmosphere) event has yet to initiate.
International guidance indicates that the chance for El Niño developing over the September – November 2014 period is about 55%. This figure has decreased compared to forecasts issued in previous months, and all signs indicate that this event would – if it does indeed occur – fall in the weak to moderate category.
During September–November 2014, mean sea level pressures are expected to be lower than normal to the north as well as over most of the country. This pressure pattern is expected to be accompanied by generally anomalous easterly flow and perturbed conditions.
Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea surface temperatures for the coming three months are expected to be near average around the coasts of New Zealand.