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Global Setting - August 2014

The equatorial Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral at the end of August 2014. Despite the Southern Oscillation Index being currently negative, a fully coupled (ocean and atmosphere) event has yet to initiate.

International guidance indicates that the chance for El Niño developing over the September – November 2014 period is about 55%. This figure has decreased compared to forecasts issued in previous months, and all signs indicate that this event would – if it does indeed occur – fall in the weak to moderate category.

During September–November 2014, mean sea level pressures are expected to be lower than normal to the north as well as over most of the country. This pressure pattern is expected to be accompanied by generally anomalous easterly flow and perturbed conditions.

Sea Surface Temperatures

Sea surface temperatures for the coming three months are expected to be near average around the coasts of New Zealand.

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 3rd of August 2014 to 30th of August 2014. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: August SOI -1.1; June to August average -0.5.
Differences from normal August surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

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