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Global Setting – January 2014

The equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in a neutral ENSO-state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in January 2013.

International guidance indicates that ENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely outcome for autumn and early winter, although there are signs that El Niño conditions may develop by mid-year.

During February – April 2014, mean sea level pressures are expected to be near normal over New Zealand itself, but with lower pressures than usual to the north of the country and higher pressures than usual well to the east. This circulation pattern is expected to be associated with weak anomalous south-westerly flows over the South Island and easterly flows over the North Island.

Sea surface temperatures

Sea surface temperatures are expected to be average or above average for the coming three months around New Zealand.

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 5th of January 2014 to 1st of February 2014. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: January SOI +1.4; November to January average +0.7.
Differences from normal January surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

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