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Retrospective - September to November Outlook

For September–November 2013, higher pressures than normal were forecast south of New Zealand, while lower pressures than normal were expected from Queensland eastwards.

This circulation pattern was expected to produce more northerlies or north-westerlies affecting the North Island, and a weaker than normal westerly flow over the South Island. Lower MSLP's than normal dominated the New Zealand region during the forecast period, particularly to the south of the country. This climate pattern resulted more westerly quarter airflows than usual across New Zealand.

Note that ENSO-neutral conditions were expected to persist over the September–November period. This forecast was well advised with neutral conditions persisting over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Predicted rainfall: Rainfall totals are likely to be normal or below normal in the east of the North Island and west of the South Island, near normal in the east of the South Island, and normal or above normal for other regions.

Outcome: Actual rainfall for the forecast period was above normal for the west of the South Island, parts of Southland, Kaikoura, southern Marlborough, the majority of the Wellington Region, the Manawatu, central Taranaki and parts of the Gisborne Region. Isolated areas of below normal rainfall were recorded along coastal fringes of Waimate District, Mackenzie District, North Canterbury, northern Hawkes Bay, Hauraki District and parts of Northland. Closer to normal rainfalls were observed for all other regions of the country.

Predicted air temperature: Temperatures are above average in the east of the North Island and the north of the South Island, and likely to be average or above average in other regions.

Outcome: The forecast was well advised with average or above average temperatures observed across all regions. Temperatures in excess of 1.0°C above normal were recorded across most districts in the Hawkes Bay region and in the Kaipara District. In contrast, closer to normal temperatures were recorded across the Otago, south Canterbury and West Coast regions as well as the Far North of New Zealand.]>

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