MenuMain navigation

Global Setting – October 2013

2 March 2014

The equatorial Pacific Ocean continues in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña). The recent cooler-than-normal sea-surface conditions (La Niña-like) in the eastern tropical Pacific have disappeared, but slightly warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures persist west of the Dateline. International guidance indicates that ENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely outcome for the next three months (November–January), and neutral conditions are likely to persist into autumn 2014.

In the New Zealand region, lower pressures than normal are forecast in the Tasman Sea and across the North Island, and higher pressures than normal are expected to the south of the country. This circulation pattern is expected to produce disturbed northerly quarter flows over the north of the country, and slightly enhanced easterly flows over the South Island.

Sea surface temperature 

Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain near average overall for the coming three months around New Zealand, except for above average temperatures east of the North Island. 

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 13th of October to 9th November 2013. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: October SOI -0.3; August to October average -0.1.
Differences from normal October surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

Archived

This page has been marked as archived, and is here for historical reference only.

Information provided may be out of date, and you are advised to check for newer sources in this section.

This content may be removed at a later date.