Retrospective - July to September Outlook

The climate we predicted and what actually happened. 

Overall, July-September was very sunny and very dry for many regions, due to the higher than usual pressures. 

Predicted rainfall: Seasonal rainfall is likely to be near normal or below normal in the north of the North Island and the west and south of the South Island, and near normal in all other regions. 

Outcome: Below normal rainfall was observed in the north of the North Island and the west of the South Island. However, it was wetter than forecast for the south of the South Island, with coastal Southland receiving well above normal rainfalls, while inland Southland experienced close to normal precipitation. Rainfall in the eastern North Island was mostly near normal, but it was much drier than forecast for Nelson/Marlborough and the eastern South Island (recording below normal rainfall). The southwest of the North Island experienced a mixture of near normal and below normal rainfalls (it was drier than predicted in Taranaki, as well as the Kapiti Coast and Wellington). 

Predicted air temperature: Air temperatures are likely to be above average in North Island regions and in Nelson-Marlborough, near or above average in the west and south of the South Island, and near average in the eastern South Island. 

Outcome: Temperatures were generally cooler than forecast. Below average temperatures were recorded in the North Island (excepting areas of both Auckland and Northland, south Taranaki, much of the Bay of Plenty as well as areas north of Gisborne, which recorded near average temperatures), as well as for Nelson, along the West Coast, inland parts of Southland, coastal Otago and coastal South Canterbury. Elsewhere in the South Island, near average temperatures were observed.