Global Setting – August 2011
ENSO conditions in the tropical Pacific are in the neutral range and are expected to remain neutral through the spring. Mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal across much of New Zealand, with weaker westerlies than normal over the country, on average. Temperatures are likely to be above average in the North Island as well as for the northern South Island, and near average or above average in other regions. Seasonal rainfall, soil moistures, and river flows are all likely to be normal or below normal for the North Island as well as the western South Island, and near normal in other regions.
Sea surface temperatures
During spring (September-November), mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal across much of New Zealand, with weaker westerlies than normal over the country, on average.