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New Zealand Climate Update 140 – February 2011

What happened in January, how our climate outlook for the previous three months turned out, global and local sea temperatures, and our outlook for February to April.

Current Climate - January 2011

In January 2011 much lower-than-usual pressures affected the region north of New Zealand, resulting in more easterly winds than normal over the country. During the month, three lows of tropical origin brought torrential rain and gales; former tropical cyclones Vania and Zelia produced heavy rain on the 18th on the West Coast, resulting in the Fox River bursting its banks. A low of tropical origin (which formed near New Caledonia) moved towards New Zealand on January 22/23, producing extremely heavy rainfall, flooding, slips and road closures over much of the North Island, north of about Wanganui. Also, Tropical Cyclone Wilma moved rapidly across the northeastern North Island on the 28th/29th, causing widespread deluge rainfalls, severe flooding and slips, in northeastern regions of the North Island.

Global Setting – January 2011

The equatorial Pacific remains in a strong La Niña state, which is expected to persist into the start of autumn. Beyond this time, there is disagreement between the ENSO forecast models as to whether La Niña will continue into winter at a weaker level, or whether a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions will occur. During Feb-Apr, mean sea level pressures are likely to be below normal to the north of New Zealand, with weaker westerlies across the country.

Outlook - February to April 2011

During Feb-Apr, mean sea level pressures are likely to be below normal to the north of New Zealand, with weaker westerlies across the country. Temperatures are likely to be above average in all regions, except in the east of both Islands where average or above average temperatures are likely. Seasonal rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal in all North Island regions, and near normal in all South Island regions.

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